NOAA Predicts Near-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season for 2023

Uncertainties Remain Amid Warm Ocean Temperatures

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center has released its outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. According to the outlook, there is a 40% chance of a near-normal season, with 14-21 named storms predicted. Of these storms, 6-10 are expected to become hurricanes, and 3-6 are predicted to reach major hurricane strength (Category 3 or higher).

Factors Influencing Uncertainty

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be more uncertain than usual due to a number of factors. One factor is the current state of the ocean and atmosphere. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are currently record-warm, which could provide fuel for hurricane development. However, other factors, such as wind shear and atmospheric pressure patterns, could also influence hurricane formation.

Another factor that is contributing to uncertainty is the ongoing La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean. La Niña conditions typically lead to increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic, but it is not clear to what extent La Niña will impact the 2023 season.

Accuracy of Seasonal Forecasts

Seasonal hurricane forecasts have improved in recent years, but they are still not perfect. In 2023, the Tropical Meteorology Project issued generally accurate forecasts, correctly anticipating the number and intensity of storms. However, it is important to remember that these forecasts are only a guide, and it is impossible to predict exactly how many hurricanes will form or where they will strike.